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Tuesday, September 07, 2004

NFL Preview

Let's get in the right mood, shall we?



Ah, much better.

Mother Nature and the NFL have forced me to rush this preview and prediction out, since the Titans vs. Dolphins game was moved up to today. So I'll do what I can to keep it short and sweet, but I have a few things to say about a few things, as always. So lets get down to business, shall we?

Saturday, September 11th
1:00 p.m. ET Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

The Titans lost alot of guys to free agency in the off-season, leaving them to re-tool across the board. Especially on defense. They've replaced them with a bevy of draft picks, but it remains to be seen if they are ready to contribute just yet.


More than anyone else, the Titans hang on the success of Steve McNair. Their offense is built with balance in mind, with equal amounts run and pass. Wait, that's not right. There's a smidgen more run than there is pass. It's not an offense that is designed to put up huge #'s like Minnesota, but they have their moments. The main idea is to wear you down with the run, and hit key passes now and then to convert, and catch the defense snoozing and hit them with a big play when they are expecting the run. MCNair can and will put up big numbers now and then, but for the most part, he's a 250 yard 2-3 touchdown and 1 interception kinda guy. Average #'s, but what he does for his team doesn't show up in the stats. He can run a little it, and he's AS tough as any other QB in the league, Brett Favre included.
Alot of people think he's overrated, but I wonder if he gets enpough credit for being not only physically tough, but mentally tough. You think back to that Rams-Titans Super Bowl, and with the grit and will he displayed there, you'd like to see them get there again to see how it'll turn out again. THere's decent depth behind hium in Bobby Volek who pitched in some help last year, but Volek is an average Qb at this point. The team wll be led and sometimes carried on McNair's shoulders.

At running back, they let go one of my favorite players in Eddie George, though it's understandable why. Eddie didn't break any big plays...he had worn down to a guy who gets you maybe a yard or 2 beyond the defensive linemen and that's the end of the run. Net gain:2-3 yards. IT was acceptable for awhile, but they've gotten tot he point where they need more. A 24 yard gain here, a 17 yarder there. They hope to get that out of Chris Brown, and he's looked good so far in the pre-season. But can he handle the load as the main guy all season long, or will he wear or break down? George got a huge amount of work; more than alot of running backs. IN fact, it could be said that he wasn worn out by the Titans, because they liked giving the ball to Eddie so much. The ball was safe with him...he rarely fumbled. Chris Brown has to prove that he can do the same. They won;t ask him to take it all on right away though. They've brought in former Patriot Antwoin Smith to spell Chris Brown now and then, to keep him fresh. Smith isn't anything special, but he is reliable.

Clearing the path for him is Robert Holcombe, who has become one of the better blocking FB's in the league. Robert is also pretty good at running the ball himself, though he's so-so at catching the ball. He'll keep his guy from getting to the RB however, and help keep pass-rushers off of McNair on passing downs. His contribution shopuldn't be overlooked; the FB is very important in this offense as a blocker, and without him, their running attack wouldn't be NEARLY as effective.

The Titans have some very good WR's to throw to, if only they could stay healthy. Titans WR's have been notorious over the years for getting various injuries keeping themout of games. It's forced them to be deep at teh WR position and to have a solid to upper echelon TE. That TE USED to be Frank Wycheck, but he retired this past year, so it falls to Eric Kinney to take up the slack. I'm not all that confident in him, to be honest, but they do have draft pick Ben Troupe, who reminds some of Shannon Sharpe. He's tall and quick enough to play a big possesion reciever, but he's strong enough to block as a TE. The only problem is that he's not ready just yet. BUt I expect him to ahve a big career if he works hard, and should be a major weapon in the years o come for Steve McNair. Meanwhile, McNair will have to work with Kinney to get the job done. Kinney is average, but nothing more. His biggest contribution will be playing the role of an extra offensive lineman for the running game. The WR's are Derrick Mason, who has proven to be a great possesion WR, and has made some good clutch cathes over the years. He has a hard time staying helathy, but when he is, he's one of the guys that Steve looks for on 3rd and long. ON the other side is Tyrone Calico. Calico is actually a young and up and coming WR, who could really blossom here, but he's injured right now and may not play in this game. That means that it's up to Eddie Berlin (no, not the band Berlin. They only ahd tat 1 Top Gun hit anyway.) to step up. Berin doesn;t have much speed, so teh Titans will ahve a hard time stretching the field without Calico. There is also Drew Bennett, who has glimpses of making the next step now and then, ut we ahve yet to see it on a consistent basis.

Because of the importance of the run on this team, the offensive line has a good group of talent itself. The midle of the line is held by Jeff Hartwig, who isn't a pro-bowler, at least not yet, but he's a solid center who provides enough push. He's helped with experienced and strong guards Zach Piller and Benji Olson, who are better known for their run blocking than their pass blocking. On the outsides, you have Brad Hopkins and Fred Miller at offensive tackle. Both are equally adept at pass and run blocking, though I don't want you to think that they are premier talents. They aren't. ut they aren't at the bottom of the league either. Solid players both of them, though Miller is more prone to letting a pass rusher by from time to time.

The defense meanwhile. is trying to overcome the loss of 2 major players on the defensive line in Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith. Their defense is an attack style defense, which will resort to any menas necessary to get pressure on the QB. This includes an occasional return to the 46 defense that the Chicago Bears used to win the Super Bowl back in 1985, and it always brings a twinkle to my eye to see it dusted off and ran, if only for a few plays. And it makes sense, since the Head Coach Jeff Fisher was a player on that 1985 team. The defense still has one of the league's best young defensive tackles in Albert Haynesworth, and Kevin Carter, who made a name for himself long ago with the Rams. Carter isn't what he used to be, and isn't as fast as he once was, so they've moved him into the other DT postiion, and away from end. It wouldn't suprise me to see him bumped back out to end though, if for just a play or two to work in a rotation, or possibly if they are unable to generate an outside pass rush. They also have some depth at DT with rookie Randy Starks and Rein Long. Rein showed some ability in the pre-season, and can at least be a contributer against the run,and Randy Starks could develop over time, like Robaire Smith has, and Albert Haynesworth has.

At DE, you have Carlos Hall, who really showed that he could play towards the end of last season in relief of Jevon Kearse who was oft-injured. The emergence of Hall made it easier for the Titans to accept the loss of Kearse, whom they could not afford to keep, with the salary cap and all. Hall needs to prove that he can do it again,a d over a course of an entire season, but it looks promising. i think the Titans are cautiously optimistic that it's going to work out. On the other side of the line though, they've got to be worried. The other DE position is up in the air,a dn they'll probably go with a rotation of some rookie players in Antwaan Odom and travis Laboy. Antwaan is built to stop the run, and LaBoy has the speed for the pass rush, but he isn't strong enough yet to be able to bull rush. He may get pushed around a bit by the stronger tackles in the league. The kids are going to have to grow up quickly, because th Titans can't afford to bring them along slowly. They need help right away, and if the rookies wilt under the pressure, they'll have a hard time making the playoffs.

The Titans defense is reliant upon the down linemen providing pressure on the QB. HTey're not afraid to send a linebacker or safety in on a blitz (somethimes both) but whether they blitz or not, the front 4 have to be there too. If one of them isn't carrying his own weight, then the Qb has enough time to find the holes in the defense and pick them apart.

Speaking of linebackers, Keith Bulluck is the best the Titans have. He is equally adept at rushing the Qb, or dropping in coverage, or in stopping the run. A pro Bol player, He's one of the best outside LB'ers in teh league, and reminds this writer of Derrick Brooks of the Tampa Bay Buccanners. Who, as we all know is reminiscent of Wilbur Marshall, a great LB from that same 1985 Chicago Bears team. (Though, Wilbur was better at getting to the Qb than Brooks was.) The Titans would love to have more linebackers like him, but then, every team would like to have a LB with his versatility. IN the middle they have Rocky Calmus, which is such a ggreat name for a Middle Linebacker. He's only average in coverage...maybe a tad bleow average, but he is stout against the run. He would hve been replaced in pass coverage by Peter Sirmon, but Sirmon was lost posibly for the season wiht an injury. They'll ahv to make do without Sirmon at this point.

The other OLB spot os held down by Rocky Boiman, and he proved that he could play last year as well in spot dutty. He's getting a chance to prove that he can do it full time, and he'll need to provide some pass rush helpsince he is behind the rookie ends. There isn't much provem depth behind them though, so they can't afford alot of injuries this year in their lnebackers.

The secondary however, has tons of talent and depth. Andre Dyson and Sumari Rolle ave Pro Bowl or near-Pro-Bowl level corners, and are getting better as the seasons roll along. Depth comes in the form of Andre Woolfork a rookie formm last year who stepped up in the playoffs. They also have Micke Echols, who isn't the normal tall rangy corner taht the Titans usually ahve, but he has ability. The corners are really important to this team, becaaue they are left alone to cover the WR's with everyone else often applying pressure on the QB. There isn't alot of help from teh safeties on this team, so the corners ahve to be top flight. They are. Meanwhile the safeties are pretty high quality themselves. Tank Williams (another great football name) is a hard hitting playmaker on one side, with plenty of speed to boot. On the other side, tehy ahve Lance Shulters, who had better years in San Fransisco, but seems to ahve found a slight re-birth in tennesee. IF his legs get tired however, they ahve good depth with Lamont Thompson. Thompsn struggled in Cincinnatti, but then again, who doesn't? Lamont can step in for Shulters and teh defense won't miss a beat.

For Miami, it's been a horrible offseason. Ricky Williams quit right before the training camp season started,a nd they lost theirfree agent singing David Boston at WR for the year. With only TE Randy MchMichael and Chris Chambers at WR as proven offensive weapons, the Miami Dolphins looked sunk. This team needed Ricky Williams, because it was predicated on the run being the majority of their offense. IN Ricky's absence, Travis Minor becamse the starter, but he doesn't have teh typical buiild to take the pounding of being the main ruinning back. He's not the type to grind out hard yardage, and eat up the clock the way the Dolphins like to do. So the Dolphins were forced to trade in order to add the extra pieces they needed. They traded their holdout DE Adewale Ogunleye to the Bears for possession WR Marty Booker. Now, possession Wr is an unkind label for Marty, since it's usually a label for really slow WR's who catch everything thrown to them. (If you cna't run fast and you can't catch...you ahve no business on an NFL roster.) Marty has average to good speed. He's not that slow. But Chambers is faster, so he gets the Speed WR lable,a dn Booker the possession WR label. Well, the addition of Booker is nice, but it hardly makes the Dolphins a passing team, beacuse the Dolphins O-line is built to run-block, and not necessarily pass blocking, as it goes against their strengths. Besides, their Qb situation is a complete mess. Jay Fiedler is an OK Qb as long as you limit his pass attempts. He;s proven that he'll never get teh Dolphins beyond a 9-7 win loss record. But the Qb they brought in AJ Feeley, wasn't able to beat him out because he isn't much better or different than Fiedler. (Maybe it's the Jewish community in South Florida campaigning to keep a nice hebrew boy like Fiedler in the starting lineup. )

(OR not. )

The Dolphins recently traded for Daily UPdate favorite Lamar Gordon from the Rams, and he better fits their design on a running back. He;s not incredibly fast, but he can grind out the tough yards, and wear out a defense. (Lamar Gordon also went to North Dakota State University, located in Fargo ND, and follows fellow alums like DE Phil Hansen of the Buffalo Bills and CB/S Tyrone Braxton of the Denver Broncos into the NFL.) However, since the trade went down a week ago or so, Lamar hasn't had enough time to learn the playbook, and won't be a huge impact this first week.

The Defense is still great, but it's starting to get a little long in the tooth. Jayson taylor is a great force on the defensive like, and he gets help from some big detfensive tackles in Larry Chester and David Bowens, who concentrate on the run, and are better than average against the pass. The other end spot was held down by now-current Bear Ogunleye, but with his departure, it has left a hole that can't be said ahs been filled yet. David Bowens and Ja Williams get teh first shot at filling it, ubt I don't know that they'll be able to do it. For what I can see, that is a weak point right now.

Behind them, they have ZXach Thomas, who lik Taylor is consistent every year,and you know exactly what you'll get out of him...a pro bowl effort, and an unquestioned leader on the team. But in football years, they're starting to run out of time,and you gotta wonder how long he can keep it up. Especially since Zach Thomas has a bit of an injury history. Junior Seau still brings his heart and intensity adn the wood to the OLB position, even if he's not as fast as he used to be. He's still a force against the run, but tehy replce him on passing downs when they can. Partially to rest him, and partially because he's not as good as he used to be. He's also one of the NFL good guys taht you hope would win a Super Bowl before his time is up. On the otherside is Marlon Greeenwood, who provides the speed of the LB group, though not always in an ogranized fashion. HE's an avergae linebacker, but he has enough great talent around him that it isn't an issue.

The corners of Miami are probabl the best pair in the AFC< just barely ahead of the Titans pair of corners. For brief periods, both have been known to shut down Wr's, but they can't maintain it for an entire game,a nd it's never at the same time as the other guy. With all that said, don't forget that they're the best corner tandem in the AFC. At safety they have some decent talent there as well, in Sammy KNight and Antwan Edwards. They aren't the fastest guys around, but they're often in the right place at the right time. Knight especially. Edwards was projected to be starter for the packers at some point, but he never lived up to their expectations, so here he is in Miami with another shot at holding down the job.

In order to win this game, the Dolphins are going to have to have a dominant performance frem their defense, keep McNair in the pocket, and keep constant pressure on him, while also shutting down the running game. They ahve enough fith in their corners against teh Titans WR's taht they shouldn't worry too much about that. Just make sure they get to McNair. IF they aren't,and MCNair as time to pass, he'll find dsomeone open, whether it be a running abck out of the backfield, or the TE.

ON offense, the Dolphins should run off tackle and sweeps past the rookie defensive ends and male them prove they can stop the run. The Titans corners will also negate the Dolphins WR's, so it's imperitive taht whomever they ahve at RB is able to move the ball.

For the Titans, its pretty obvious at this point. Leave their corners to take care of the WR's. Getting pressure on Fielder shouldn't be too tough of a deal to do. The OL isn't known for their ability to pass block as much as they are for run blocking. The Dolphins don;t have the ability to dominate in the running game right now, so if they can hut down teh run, and force Miami to pass, they should be able to hold Miami to around 10 points or so. that should be enough to win, provided taht the titans offense can run against a tough defense. they don't ahve to have a huge day on the ground. Just well enough to make the Dolphins respect the run, so that the play-action pass is effective (that's when tehy fake the andoff to the RB and throw the ball, for those that don't know),a nd avoid any turnovers, like interceptions and fumbles...like onest athat are returned for TD's.

My prediction: Titans win this one fairly easily.

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